August 2022 Market Insights
By: Tony Minopoli, President & CIO of Knights of Columbus Asset Advisors
July proved to be a bit of a reprieve from the negative equity returns that have plagued the U.S. stock market in 2022. For July, the S&P 500 returned 9.2% and, through this morning, is now down -12.6% for the year[1]. The issues causing weakness in the stock markets have largely remained in place. For example, we are no closer to a resolution in Ukraine and Putin is likely more determined for an outcome that helps him maintain some semblance of respect in Russia. Inflation remains red hot, although you would not know that by looking at the bond market. China’s potential conflict with Taiwan remains high and has only intensified with Nancy Pelosi’s recent trip. Finally, the supply chain remains challenged, fuel costs are high, housing remains constrained and expensive, and wage costs will continue to have an impact on inflation.
The last reading on inflation indicated that consumer prices rose 9.1% over the past 12 months[2]. With the continued elevation of fuel costs, the prices of virtually everything are higher than last year and likely going higher. I have written about how the cost of energy impacts everything from manufacturing through delivery and is only adding to the aggregate cost. We remain very concerned about the cost of energy and Russia’s ongoing “maintenance” of the Nord Stream Pipeline, which may force some European countries to return to coal for electricity. We continue to watch the attempts to launch a full-blown green revolution that is met by the inconvenient truth that clean energy technology and storage is not fully developed yet.
While the war in Ukraine continues to rage on, tensions between Taiwan and China have become more pronounced given Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit. One theory is that this trip became more of an issue because President Biden publicly mused about whether she should have made the trip. By making the trip a thing, China was forced into a reaction which was mainly manifested by military exercises the day after Pelosi left Taiwan. The question is whether China invades Taiwan prior to the Chinese political meetings later this year where President Xi Jinping is seeking a third term.
Returning to the bond market, yields have fallen to 2.65% from this year’s high of 3.47% that occurred on June 14[3]. Despite persistent inflation, it appears that the bond market is betting that the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) will get inflation under control. The Fed has hiked rates by 75 basis points in each of the last two meetings and they are expected to keep raising rates until inflation is under control. Theoretically, by making money expensive, this will tamp down demand and that will lead to lower prices.
As analysts, we are always trying to decipher if there is anything in the current environment that is different from prior inflationary environments. The most glaring difference is the amount of Fed involvement in the bond markets since the Great Recession in the 2008-2009 timeframe. I have written about the uncertainty that would arise when the Fed withdrew stimulus, and we are seeing that now. At the time that we are battling inflation, the rest of the world is also looking at inflation and demanding the haven of U.S. securities given the number of geopolitical concerns. As a result, bond rates remain well below inflation. The inversion of the yield curve has been a precursor for recessions. As we currently have a curve inversion of 24 basis points between 2-Year Treasury notes and 10-Year Treasury notes[4], the bond market is signaling a recession. Regular readers know of my affinity for the Index of Leading Indicators. This index is made up of sub factors such as stocks, interest rates, wages and other factors. The index has historically had strong forecasting for economic activity for 6 – 12 months in the future. Over the last four months, and we have witnessed the index rolling over (an indicator of slowing economic activity).
Despite arguments over what technically defines a recession, we believe we are likely in a recession. Gross Domestic Product has been negative for two quarters, we are starting to see job layoffs in certain sectors, and housing prices are starting to soften. Will this be a soft landing or a more protracted recession? That we do not know. However, we are also seeing that consumers and companies are more solvent and the declines in stock prices have also made equities more reasonably valued.
As we go through the next several months, we will be able to evaluate the path of the market and the economy. As I write this on the morning of August 5th, the payroll numbers were released and showed that we added over 500,000 jobs last month[5]; a sign that the job market may be stronger than previously thought. We remain constructive on the economy given the continued path of consumer demand and the general financial health of consumers and companies. That said, we remain concerned about geopolitical tensions, overall energy prices and remaining supply chain issues. The move to localize the supply chain will be inflationary because the low-cost labor in Southeast Asia effectively allowed for deflation to be exported to the west. If we make supply chains more local, the efficiency of mass production will be minimized, and western wage costs will drive up prices. You cannot have cheap prices and high wages. Finally, we believe that the Fed will continue to battle inflation, and this is providing a level of confidence in the U.S. markets. Our Asset Allocation Committee has not recommended any changes to our model portfolios, but this is something we watch regularly.
The next few months will be interesting, particularly as we add the Midterm elections into the mix. Congress seems poised to pass the watered-down Build Back Better Plan as the Democrats are desirous of a legislative “win” to show their constituents. I hope you enjoy the remainder of the summer and please reach out if we can be helpful in your deliberations about your portfolio.
Until next month.
[1] Source: Bloomberg, as of July 29, 2022
[2] Source: Bloomberg, as of June 2022
[3] Source: Bloomberg, as of July 29, 2022
[4] Source: Bloomberg, as of July 29, 2022
[5] Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Core Bond Fund
| One Month ( As of 7/31/22) |
YTD ( As of 7/31/22) |
1 Year ( As of 6/30/22) |
5 Years ( As of 6/30/22) |
Since Inception ( As of 6/30/22) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Bond Fund-I Shares | 2.10% | -9.87% | -11.56% | 0.80% | 1.28% |
| Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index | 2.44% | -8.16% | -10.29% | 0.88% | 1.18% |
| Lipper Core Bond Fund Average | 2.45% | -8.74% | -11.09% | 0.79% | 1.10% |
| Lipper Percentile Rank | 66% | 50% |
*Lipper Percentile Rank is based on total return performance. Lipper Category: Core Bond Funds. Number of Funds in Category: 504 (1 Year) and 438 (5 Year). Gross Expense Ratio 0.71%, Net Expense Ratio 0.50%.
Limited Duration Fund
| One Month ( As of 7/31/22) |
YTD ( As of 7/31/22) |
1 Year ( As of 6/30/22) |
5 Years ( As of 6/30/22) |
Since Inception ( As of 6/30/22) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Duration Bond Fund-I Shares | 0.52% | -2.91% | -3.88% | 1.04% | 1.02% |
| Bloomberg Government/Credit 1-3 Year Index | -0.53% | -2.60% | -3.56% | 1.07% | 1.04% |
| Lipper Short Investment Grade Debt Fund Average | 0.87% | -3.48% | -4.67% | 1.04% | 1.11% |
| Lipper Percentile Rank | 24% | 52% |
*Lipper Percentile Rank is based on total return performance. Lipper Category: Short Investment Grade Debt Funds. Number of Funds in Category: 369 (1 Year) and 308 (5 Year). Gross Expense Ratio 0.71%, Net Expense Ratio 0.50%.
Large Cap Growth Fund
| One Month ( As of 7/31/22) |
YTD ( As of 7/31/22) |
1 Year ( As of 6/30/22) |
5 Years ( As of 6/30/22) |
Since Inception ( As of 6/30/22) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Cap Growth Fund-I Shares | 10.74% | -21.30% | -22.97% | 9.83% | 8.44% |
| Russell 1000 Growth Index | 12.00% | -19.44% | -18.77% | 14.29% | 12.63% |
| Lipper Multi-Cap Growth Fund Average | 11.52% | -25.01% | -29.68% | 9.88% | 8.92% |
| Lipper Percentile Rank | 36% | 50% |
*Lipper Percentile Rank is based on total return performance. Lipper Category: Multi-Cap Growth Funds. Number of Funds in Category: 465 (1 Year) and 393 (5 Year). Gross Expense Ratio 0.90%, Net Expense Ratio 0.90%.
Large Cap Value Fund
| One Month ( As of 7/31/22) |
YTD ( As of 7/31/22) |
1 Year ( As of 6/30/22) |
5 Years ( As of 6/30/22) |
Since Inception ( As of 6/30/22) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Cap Value Fund-I Shares | 6.71% | -7.84% | -7.37% | 7.42% | 7.15% |
| Russell 1000 Value Index | 6.63% | -7.08% | -6.82% | 7.17% | 7.13% |
| Lipper Multi-Cap Value Fund Average | 6.23% | -6.84% | -6.82% | 7.23% | 6.85% |
| Lipper Percentile Rank | 65% | 48% |
*Lipper Percentile Rank is based on total return performance. Lipper Category: Multi-Cap Value Funds. Number of Funds in Category: 631 (1 Year) and 560 (5 Year). Gross Expense Ratio 0.90%, Net Expense Ratio 0.90%.
Small Cap Fund
| One Month ( As of 7/31/22) |
YTD ( As of 7/31/22) |
1 Year ( As of 6/30/22) |
5 Years ( As of 6/30/22) |
Since Inception ( As of 6/30/22) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Cap Equity Fund-I Shares | 10.04% | -16.56% | -20.27% | 4.19% | 4.79% |
| Russell 2000 Index | 10.44% | -15.43% | -25.20% | 5.17% | 5.94% |
| Lipper Small Cap Fund Average | 9.33% | -11.25% | -15.77% | 5.41% | 6.01% |
| Lipper Percentile Rank | 82% | 74% |
*Lipper Percentile Rank is based on total return performance. Lipper Category: Small-Cap Core Funds. Number of Funds in Category: 852 (1 Year) and 743 (5 Year). Gross Expense Ratio 1.05%, Net Expense Ratio 1.05%.
International Equity Fund
| One Month ( As of7/31/22) |
YTD ( As of 7/31/22) |
1 Year ( As of 6/30/22) |
5 Years ( As of 6/30/22) |
Since Inception ( As of 6/30/22) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Equity-I Shares | 4.89% | -16.75% | -21.65% | 3.42% | 3.86% |
| FTSE All World Ex US Index | 3.46% | -15.11% | -18.64% | 3.16% | 3.33% |
| Lipper International Multi-Cap Fund Average | 4.49% | -15.24% | -18.44% | 1.85% | 2.39% |
| Lipper Percentile Rank | 89% | 7% |
*Lipper Percentile Rank is based on total return performance. Lipper Category: International Multi-Cap Core. Number of Funds in Category: 331 (1 Year) and 256 (5 Year). Gross Expense Ratio 1.21%, Net Expense Ratio 1.10%.
Real Estate Fund
| One Month ( As of 7/31/22) |
YTD ( As of 7/31/22) |
1 Year ( As of 6/30/22) |
Since Inception ( As of 6/30/22) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate-I Shares | 8.95% | -7.97% | -1.93% | 6.36% |
| FTSE Nareit Equity REITs Index | 9.06% | -12.97% | -6.27% | 1.56% |
| Lipper Real Estate Average | 8.35% | 13.59% | -8.17% | 2.29% |
| Lipper Percentile Rank | 1% |
*Lipper Percentile Rank is based on total return performance. Lipper Category: Real Estate
Number of Funds in Category: 247 (1 Year)
Gross Expense Ratio 1.16%, Net Expense Ratio 1.00%.
Long-Short Equity Fund
| One Month ( As of 7/31/22) |
YTD ( As of 7/31/22) |
1 Year ( As of 6/30/22) |
Since Inception ( As of 6/30/22) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long-Short Equity – I Shares | -0.09% | 6.17% | 15.01% | 3.97% |
| HFRX Equity Market Neutral Developed Index | 0.47% | -1.94% | -3.83% | -2.36% |
| Lipper Alternative Long/Short Average | 3.18% | -5.41% | -4.36% | 4.84% |
| Lipper Percentile rank | 7% |
*Lipper Percentile Rank is based on total return performance. Lipper Category: Alternative Long/Short Equity Number of Funds in Category: 242 (1 Year) Gross Expense Ratio 2.63, Net Expense Ratio 2.28%.
U.S. All Cap Index Fund
| One Month ( As of 7/31/22) |
YTD ( As of 7/31/22) |
1 Year ( As of 6/30/22) |
Since Inception ( As of 6/30/22) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. All Cap Index – I Shares | 9.91% | -14.99% | -15.47% | 7.36% |
| Knights of Columbus U.S. All Cap Index | 9.90% | -14.90% | -15.33% | 7.78% |
| Lipper Multi-Cap Core Average | 8.47% | -13.66% | -13.94% | 6.05% |
| Lipper Percentile rank | 70% |
*Lipper Percentile Rank is based on total return performance. Lipper Category: Multi-Cap Core Number of Funds in Category: 669 (1 Year)
Gross Expense Ratio 0.92%, Net Expense Ratio 0.25%.
The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth less than their original cost and current performance may be higher or lower than the performance quoted. Investment performance does not reflect the redemption fee; if it was reflected, the total return would be lower than shown. For performance data current to the most recent month end, please call 1-844-KC-FUNDS.
Fund performance for the 1 year, 5 year, and Since Inception periods are annualized. The inception date for Limited Duration, Core Bond, Large Cap Growth, Large Cap Value, Small Cap, and International are February 27, 2015. 5-year fund performance is not available for the Real Estate Fund, Long/Short Equity, or the U.S. All Cap Index since the funds’ inception dates are September 30, 2019, December 21, 2019, and December 31, 2019, respectively.
Effective July 21, 2020, the Knights of Columbus Real Estate Fund underwent a change in its Investment Objective and a name change to reflect the new investment strategy as detailed in The Funds’ Prospectus update of July 20, 2020. The Fund was formerly known as Knights of Columbus Global Real Estate Fund. Results prior to July 20, 2020, reflect the performance of the Fund's previous strategy.
Knights of Columbus Asset Advisors LLC has contractually agreed to waive fees and/or to reimburse expenses to the extent necessary to keep Total Annual Fund Operating Expenses, (excluding interest, taxes, fund brokerage commissions, acquired fund fees and expenses and non-routine expenses) from exceeding the Net Expense Ratio for the respective Funds’ Institutional Shares average daily net assets until February 28, 2023.
Benchmark Definitions
Bloomberg Government/Credit 1-3 Year Index – benchmark for Limited Duration Fund
The U.S. Government/Credit Index is the non-securitized component of the U.S. Aggregate Index and was the first macro index launched by Barclays Capital. The U.S. Government/Credit Index includes Treasuries (i.e., public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have remaining maturities of more than one year), government-related issues (i.e., agency, sovereign, supranational, and local authority debt), and corporates. The U.S. Government/Credit Index was launched on January 1, 1979 and is a subset of the U.S. Aggregate Index. The 1-3 year index includes all medium and larger issues of U.S. government, investment-grade corporate, and investment-grade international dollar-denominated bonds that have maturities of between 1 and 3 years and are publicly issued.
Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index – benchmark for Core Bond Fund
The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency). Provided the necessary inclusion rules are met, US Aggregate eligible securities also contribute to the multi-currency Global Aggregate Index and the US Universal Index, which includes high yield and emerging markets debt. The US Aggregate Index was created in 1986.
FTSE All-World Ex-U.S. Index – benchmark for International Equity Fund
The FTSE All-World ex US Index is one of a number of indexes designed to help investors benchmark their international investments. The index comprises Large and Mid cap stocks providing coverage of Developed and Emerging Markets excluding the US. The index is derived from the FTSE Global Equity Index Series (GEIS), which covers 98% of the world’s investable market capitalization.
Russell 1000 Growth Index – benchmark for Large Cap Growth Fund
The Russell 1000 Growth Index measures the performance of the large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Growth Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer for the large-cap growth segment. The Index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure new and growing equities are included and that the represented companies continue to reflect growth characteristics.
Russell 1000 Value Index – benchmark for Large Cap Value Fund
The Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of the large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. The Russell 1000 Value Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer for the large-cap value segment. The Index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure new and growing equities are included and that the represented companies continue to reflect value characteristics.
Russell 2000 Index – benchmark for Small Cap Fund
The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 2000 is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased small-cap barometer and is completely reconstituted annually to ensure larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the true small-cap opportunity set.
FTSE Nareit Equity REITs Index – benchmark for Real Estate Fund – The FTSE Nareit Equity REITs Index contains all Equity REITs not designated as Timber REITs or Infrastructure REITs. Prior to December 2010, the index included Timber REITs and Infrastructure REITs.
HFRX Equity Market Neutral Index – benchmark for Long/Short Equity Fund HFRX Equity Market Neutral Index The HFRX Equity Market Neutral Index employs sophisticated quantitative techniques of analyzing price data to ascertain information about future price movement and relationships between securities, select securities for purchase and sale. These can include both Factor-based and Statistical Arbitrage/Trading Strategies.
Knights of Columbus U.S. All Cap Index – benchmark for U.S. All Cap Index Fund Knights of Columbus U.S. All Cap Index Adheres to the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops’ Socially Responsible Investment Guidelines. Consists of all common stocks and real estate investment trusts in the Solactive US Broad Market Index excluding companies that are determined by Institutional Shareholder.
Indices are unmanaged and do not reflect the effect of fees. One cannot invest directly in an index.
Lipper Peer Group Definitions
Lipper Short Investment Grade Debt Classification – peer group for Limited Duration Fund
Funds that invest primarily in investment-grade debt issues (rated in the top four grades) with dollar-weighted average maturities of less than three years. The Limited Duration Bond fund ranked 89 out of 369 funds measured for the one-year ranking period and ranked 159 out of 308 funds measured for the five-year ranking period as of June 30, 2022.
Lipper Core Bond Classification – peer group for Core Bond Fund
Funds that invest at least 85% in domestic investment-grade debt issues (rated in the top four grades) with any remaining investment in non-benchmark sectors such as high-yield, global and emerging market debt. These funds maintain dollar-weighted average maturities of five to ten years. The Core Bond fund ranked 331 out of 504 funds measured for the one-year ranking period and ranked 220 out of 438 funds measured for the five-year ranking period as of June 30, 2022.
Lipper Multi-Cap Growth Classification – peer group for Large Cap Growth Fund
Funds that, by portfolio practice, invest in a variety of market capitalization ranges without concentrating 75% of their equity assets in any one market capitalization range over an extended period of time. Multi-cap growth funds typically have above-average characteristics compared to the S&P SuperComposite 1500 Index. The Large Cap Growth fund ranked 166 out of 465 funds measured for the one-year ranking period ranked and 197 out of 393 funds measured for the five year ranking period as of June 30, 2022.
Lipper Multi-Cap Value Classification – peer group for Large Cap Value Fund
Funds that, by portfolio practice, invest in a variety of market capitalization ranges without concentrating 75% of their equity assets in any one market capitalization range over an extended period of time. Multi-cap value funds typically have below-average characteristics compared to the S&P SuperComposite 1500 Index. The Large Cap Value fund ranked 411 out of 631 funds measured for the one-year ranking period and ranked 270 out of 560 funds measured for the five-year ranking period as of June 30, 2022.
Lipper Small-Cap Core Classification – peer group for Small Cap Fund
Funds that, by portfolio practice, invest at least 75% of their equity assets in companies with market capitalizations (on a three-year weighted basis) below Lipper’s USDE small-cap ceiling. Small cap core funds have more latitude in the companies in which they invest. These funds typically have average characteristics compared to the S&P SmallCap 600 Index. The Small Cap Equity fund ranked 699 out of 852 funds measured for the one-year ranking period and ranked 551 out of 743 funds measured for the five-year ranking period as of June 30, 2022.
Lipper International Multi-Cap Core Classification – peer group for International Equity Fund
Funds that, by portfolio practice, invest in a variety of market capitalization ranges without concentrating 75% of their equity assets in any one market capitalization range over an extended period of time. International multi-cap funds typically have characteristics compared to the MSCI EAFE Index. The International Equity fund ranked 295 out of 331 funds measured for the one-year ranking period and ranked 17 out of 256 funds measured for the five-year ranking period as of June 30, 2022.
Lipper Real Estate Classification – peer group for Real Estate Fund
Funds invest primarily in equity securities of domestic and foreign companies engaged in the real estate industry. The Real Estate fund ranked 2 out of 247 funds measured for the one-year ranking period as of June 30, 2022.
Lipper Alternative Long/Short Equity Classification – peer group for Long/Short Equity Fund
Funds that employ portfolio strategies combining long holdings of equities with short sales of equities, equity options or equity index options. The funds may be either net long or net short, depending on the portfolio manager’s view of the market. The Long/Short fund ranked 16 out of 242 funds measured for the one-year ranking period as of June 30, 2022.
Lipper Multi-Cap Core Classification – peer group for U.S. All Cap Index Fund
Funds that, by portfolio practice, invest in a variety of market capitalization ranges without concentrating 75% of their equity assets in any one market-capitalization range over an extended period of time. The U.S. All Cap Index fund ranked 471 out of 669 funds measured for the one-year ranking period as of June 30, 2022.