May 2023 Market Insights
By: Tony Minopoli, President & CIO of Knights of Columbus Asset Advisors
This month has continued the economic challenges as the most predicted recession in history has not yet arrived, but we believe compelling evidence is building for an impending slowed down. That said, no one can predict if this will be a shallow and short recession or one that will have real teeth and a longer duration.
Though it happened on May 1st I feel compelled to discuss the FDIC takeover and subsequent sale of First Republic Bank to JP Morgan. Back in 2008 during the Great Financial Crisis, Wachovia Bank was under significant pressure and then FDIC Chief Sheila Bair engineered a shot gun wedding by talking to the major banks to see who was going to step up and acquire Wachovia. Notice that I said “buy” Wachovia because Well Fargo acquired the entire bank in a stock deal meaning that the Wachovia equity holders were swapped into Wells Fargo stock and the debt and preferred investors became creditors of Wells Fargo.
In this case, the FDIC held First Republic for a magic minute and in that magic minute all securities were wiped out. I was not privy to the discussions between JP Morgan and the FDIC; however, I would not be shocked to learn that JP Morgan made it an absolute condition that they would only acquire the deposits of First Republic if the capital structure of First Republic was vaporized. Poof… and there went the investors in First republic, except for the small issue of secured investors.
In a very real sense, this may place more pressure on the regional banks because the government has implicitly said depositors are good and investors don’t matter. Recall in the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank, Roku had $500 million in uninsured deposits, and they were made whole and the pension fund that held $10 million in senior unsecured debt was left twisting in the wind. This new FDIC playbook may play well to allow President Biden to say, “see I protected Main Street and let Wall Street take their medicine.” There is one enormously significant problem with this line of reasoning; Main Street IS an investor in these regional banks through the insurance companies that hold their life insurance, the mutual funds in their 401(k) plans and potentially on the balance sheet of the banks where they hold their deposits. Time will tell if we move to an ever-shrinking number of banks to where the only four that matter are Chase, Citibank, Wells Fargo and Bank of America[1].
In April, the S&P 500 returned 1.56%[2] with dividends reinvested, and there was a slight difference between growth and value investing. Growth stocks returned about 1.0%[1], as measured by the Russell 1000 Growth Index and Value stocks returned 1.51%[1], as measured by the Russell 1000 Value Index. Bonds returned 0.61%[1] as measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. In terms of yield, the 10-year Treasury yielded 3.47%[1] at the end of March, fell to 3.31%[1] on April 6th and ended the month at 3.43%[1].
In looking at the economy, First Quarter GDP was reported at 1.1%[1] so we are still growing, but at a decelerating rate. Inflation peaked last June at over 9%[1] and the last readings show inflation still growing at 5.0%1 versus last year, and when food and energy are factored out, inflation accelerated 5.6%[1] versus last year. One of the key concerns driving inflation expectations is the continued tightness of the labor market as unemployment is only 3.5%[1] and underemployment stands at 6.6%[1]. Job openings remain well in excess of those seeking employment, however, the number of job openings is starting to decrease. Also feeding the inflation narrative is continued strength in average hourly earnings that is still growing at 5.0%[1] annually, as of the last reading.
As most things in life, the current economic situation is not purely black and white. Several months ago, Janet Yellen noted that a strong employment market is not usually a sign of an impending recession. I tend to agree with that view, and we still see strong capacity utilization among factories and a slight uptick in factory orders versus the last few months. The last releases for Durable Goods Orders also showed strength over March. Regular readers may recall that I have leaned on the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index. This is an index of 10 underlying indices that include stocks, bonds, inflation, employment wages and other production indices. This index has rolled over pretty significantly, as you can see in the chart below.
The movement in this index has had fairly strong predictive power in economic activity for the coming 6-12 months. This downward move certainly portends an economic slowdown, but it does not provide much of a window into the depth or duration of a potential recession. As I mentioned earlier, this is the most predicted recession in my career, and it has been pushed off a few times.
Ultimately, this is really driving investors to think about what they should be doing. We do recommend reviewing your asset allocation, but unless you have had a significant change in circumstances, meaning needing assets sooner or a committee decision to take risk off the table for the long-term, we continue to recommend against market timing. I have written about this in the past and the central tenet of the argument remains that if one is trying to time the market and moves to cash, as an example, one also needs to establish the market level of event that will draw them back into their long-term asset allocation. Tricky indeed!
We are always here to discuss your investment structure and thoughts and please do not hesitate to reach out.
Until next month.
[1] For the top 10 holdings of each fund click here: https://www.kofcassetadvisors.org/kadvs/en/resources/top-10-holdings.pdf
[2] Source: Bloomberg
Core Bond Fund
| One Month (As of 4/30/23) |
YTD (As of 4/30/23) |
1 Year (As of 4/30/23) |
5 Years (As of 4/30/23) |
Since Inception (As of 4/30/23) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Bond Fund-I Shares | 0.57% | 3.56% | -1.72% | 1.03% | 1.21% |
| Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index | 0.61% | 3.59% | -0.43% | 1.18% | 1.23% |
| Lipper Core Bond Fund Average | 0.58% | 3.65% | -2.31% | 1.11% | |
| Lipper Percentile Rank | 79% | 58% |
*Lipper Percentile Rank is based on total return performance. Lipper Category: Core Bond Funds. Number of Funds in Category: 517 (1 Year) and 458 (5 Year). Gross Expense Ratio 0.66%, Net Expense Ratio 0.50%.
Limited Duration Fund
| One Month (As of 4/30/23) |
YTD (As of 4/30/23) |
1 Year (As of 4/30/23) |
5 Years (As of 4/30/23) |
Since Inception (As of 4/30/23) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Duration Bond Fund-I Shares | 0.42% | 2.05% | 1.10% | 1.37% | 1.11% |
| Bloomberg Government/Credit 1-3 Year Index | 0.34% | 1.86% | 1.15% | 1.35% | 1.09% |
| Lipper Short Investment Grade Debt Fund Average | 0.49% | 2.13% | 1.19% | 1.40% | |
| Lipper Percentile Rank | 58% | 53% |
Lipper Percentile Rank is based on total return performance. Lipper Category: Short Investment Grade Debt Funds. Number of Funds in Category: 375 (1 Year) and 305 (5 Year). Gross Expense Ratio 0.66%, Net Expense Ratio 0.50%.
Large Cap Growth Fund
| One Month (As of 4/30/23) |
YTD (As of 4/30/23) |
1 Year (As of 4/30/23) |
5 Years (As of 4/30/23) |
Since Inception (As of 4/30/23) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Cap Growth Fund-I Shares | 1.26% | 14.63% | 0.14% | 8.86% | 8.87% |
| Russell 1000 Growth Index | 0.99% | 15.49% | 2.34% | 13.80% | 13.05% |
| Lipper Multi-Cap Growth Fund Average | -0.68% | 10.52% | -3.04% | 9.02% | |
| Lipper Percentile Rank | 57% | 85% |
*Lipper Percentile Rank is based on total return performance. Lipper Category: Multi-Cap Growth Funds. Number of Funds in Category: 642 (1 Year) and 574 (5 Year). Gross Expense Ratio 0.90%, Net Expense Ratio 0.90%.
Large Cap Value Fund
| One Month (As of 4/30/23) |
YTD (As of 4/30/23) |
1 Year (As of 4/30/23) |
5 Years (As of 4/30/23) |
Since Inception (As of 4/30/23) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Cap Value Fund-I Shares | 2.91% | 3.55% | 2.07% | 7.54% | 7.67% |
| Russell 1000 Value Index | 1.51% | 2.53% | 1.21% | 7.75% | 7.49% |
| Lipper Multi-Cap Value Fund Average | 1.22% | 2.39% | 1.48% | 7.57% | - |
| Lipper Percentile Rank | 38% | 49% |
*Lipper Percentile Rank is based on total return performance. Lipper Category: Multi-Cap Value Funds. Number of Funds in Category: 661 (1 Year) and 580 (5 Year). Gross Expense Ratio 0.90%, Net Expense Ratio 0.90%.
Small Cap Fund
| One Month (As of 4/30/23) |
YTD (As of 4/30/23) |
1 Year (As of 4/30/23) |
5 Years (As of 4/30/23) |
Since Inception (As of 4/30/23) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Cap Equity Fund-I Shares | -0.89% | 1.74% | -3.32% | 4.21% | 5.12% |
| Russell 2000 Index | -1.80% | 0.89% | -3.65% | 4.15% | 5.93% |
| Lipper Small Cap Fund Average | -1.94% | 0.75% | -2.18% | 4.99% | |
| Lipper Percentile Rank | 62% | 85% |
*Lipper Percentile Rank is based on total return performance. Lipper Category: Small-Cap Core Funds. Number of Funds in Category: 705 (1 Year) and 624 (5 Year). Gross Expense Ratio 1.05%, Net Expense Ratio 1.05%.
International Equity Fund
| One Month (As of 4/30/23) |
YTD (As of 4/30/23) |
1 Year (As of 4/30/23) |
5 Years (As of 4/30/23) |
Since Inception (As of 4/30/23) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Equity-I Shares | 1.17% | 7.03% | 0.43% | 2.20% | 4.57% |
| FTSE All World Ex US Index | 1.82% | 8.50% | 3.21% | 3.14% | 4.44% |
| Lipper International Multi-Cap Fund Average | 2.26% | 10.12% | 6.29% | 2.75% | - |
| Lipper Percentile Rank | 97% | 73% |
* Lipper Percentile Rank is based on total return performance. Lipper Category: International Multi-Cap Core. Number of Funds in Category: 334 (1 Year) and 267 (5 Year). Gross Expense Ratio 1.16%, Net Expense Ratio 1.10%.
Real Estate Fund
| One Month (As of 4/30/23) |
YTD (As of 4/30/23) |
1 Year (As of 4/30/23) |
3 Years (As of 4/30/23) |
Since Inception (As of 4/30/23) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate-I Shares | 0.76% | 4.28% | -14.78% | 9.63% | 3.46% |
| FTSE Nareit Equity REITs Index | 0.83% | 3.54% | -14.80% | 9.44% | 0.67 |
| Lipper Real Estate Average | 0.81% | 3.55% | -15.56% | 7.48 | - |
| Lipper Percentile Rank | 22% | 13% |
* Lipper Percentile Rank is based on total return performance. Lipper Category: Real Estate Number of Funds in Category: 250 (1 Year) and 232 (3 Year). Gross Expense Ratio 1.07%, Net Expense Ratio 1.00%.
Long-Short Equity Fund
| One Month (As of 4/30/23) |
YTD (As of 4/30/23) |
1 Year (As of 4/30/23) |
3 Years (As of 4/30/23) |
Since Inception (As of 4/30/23) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long-Short Equity – I Shares | 1.16% | -1.27% | 0.96% | 7.41% | 3.76 |
| HFRX Equity Market Neutral Developed Index | -0.15% | -0.44% | -1.04% | 1.90% | -1.19% |
| Lipper Alternative Long/Short Average | 0.79% | 2.89% | 1.77% | 8.37 | - |
| Lipper Percentile rank | 56% | 62% |
*Lipper Percentile Rank is based on total return performance. Lipper Category: Alternative Long/Short Equity Number of Funds in Category: 223 (1 Year) and 197 (3 Year). Gross Expense Ratio 2.15, Net Expense Ratio 2.06%.
U.S. All Cap Index Fund
| One Month (As of 4/30/23) |
YTD (As of 4/30/23) |
1 Year (As of 4/30/23) |
3 Years (As of 4/30/23) |
Since Inception (As of 4/30/23) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. All Cap Index – I Shares | 0.87% | 9.69% | 1.59% | 14.66% | 9.11% |
| Knights of Columbus U.S. All Cap Index | 0.84% | 9.56% | 1.69% | 15.01% | 9.44% |
| Lipper Multi-Cap Core Average | 0.65% | 6.42% | 0.76% | 12.76% | - |
| Lipper Percentile rank | 45% | 23% |
*Lipper Percentile Rank is based on total return performance. Lipper Category: Multi-Cap Core Number of Funds in Category: 666 (1 Year) and 592 (3 Year). Gross Expense Ratio 0.60%, Net Expense Ratio 0.25%.
The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth less than their original cost and current performance may be higher or lower than the performance quoted. Investment performance does not reflect the redemption fee; if it was reflected, the total return would be lower than shown. For performance data current to the most recent month end, please call 1-844-KC-FUNDS.
Fund performance for the 1 year, 5 year, and Since Inception periods are annualized. The inception date for Limited Duration, Core Bond, Large Cap Growth, Large Cap Value, Small Cap, and International are February 27, 2015. 5-year fund performance is not available for the Real Estate Fund, Long/Short Equity, or the U.S. All Cap Index since the funds’ inception dates are September 30, 2019, December 21, 2019, and December 31, 2019, respectively.
Effective July 21, 2020, the Knights of Columbus Real Estate Fund underwent a change in its Investment Objective and a name change to reflect the new investment strategy as detailed in The Funds’ Prospectus update of July 20, 2020. The Fund was formerly known as Knights of Columbus Global Real Estate Fund. Results prior to July 20, 2020, reflect the performance of the Fund's previous strategy.
Knights of Columbus Asset Advisors LLC has contractually agreed to waive fees and/or to reimburse expenses to the extent necessary to keep Total Annual Fund Operating Expenses, (excluding interest, taxes, fund brokerage commissions, acquired fund fees and expenses and non-routine expenses) from exceeding the Net Expense Ratio for the respective Funds’ Institutional Shares average daily net assets until February 28, 2024.
Benchmark Definitions
Bloomberg Government/Credit 1-3 Year Index – benchmark for Limited Duration Fund
The U.S. Government/Credit Index is the non-securitized component of the U.S. Aggregate Index and was the first macro index launched by Barclays Capital. The U.S. Government/Credit Index includes Treasuries (i.e., public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have remaining maturities of more than one year), government-related issues (i.e., agency, sovereign, supranational, and local authority debt), and corporates. The U.S. Government/Credit Index was launched on January 1, 1979 and is a subset of the U.S. Aggregate Index. The 1-3 year index includes all medium and larger issues of U.S. government, investment-grade corporate, and investment-grade international dollar-denominated bonds that have maturities of between 1 and 3 years and are publicly issued.
Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index – benchmark for Core Bond Fund
The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency). Provided the necessary inclusion rules are met, US Aggregate eligible securities also contribute to the multi-currency Global Aggregate Index and the US Universal Index, which includes high yield and emerging markets debt. The US Aggregate Index was created in 1986.
FTSE All-World Ex-U.S. Index – benchmark for International Equity Fund
The FTSE All-World ex US Index is one of a number of indexes designed to help investors benchmark their international investments. The index comprises Large and Mid cap stocks providing coverage of Developed and Emerging Markets excluding the US. The index is derived from the FTSE Global Equity Index Series (GEIS), which covers 98% of the world’s investable market capitalization.
Russell 1000 Growth Index – benchmark for Large Cap Growth Fund
The Russell 1000 Growth Index measures the performance of the large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Growth Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer for the large-cap growth segment. The Index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure new and growing equities are included and that the represented companies continue to reflect growth characteristics.
Russell 1000 Value Index – benchmark for Large Cap Value Fund
The Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of the large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. The Russell 1000 Value Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer for the large-cap value segment. The Index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure new and growing equities are included and that the represented companies continue to reflect value characteristics.
Russell 2000 Index – benchmark for Small Cap Fund
The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 2000 is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased small-cap barometer and is completely reconstituted annually to ensure larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the true small-cap opportunity set.
FTSE Nareit Equity REITs Index – benchmark for Real Estate Fund
The FTSE Nareit Equity REITs Index contains all Equity REITs not designated as Timber REITs or Infrastructure REITs. Prior to December 2010, the index included Timber REITs and Infrastructure REITs.
HFRX Equity Market Neutral Index – benchmark for Long/Short Equity Fund
HFRX Equity Market Neutral Index The HFRX Equity Market Neutral Index employs sophisticated quantitative techniques of analyzing price data to ascertain information about future price movement and relationships between securities, select securities for purchase and sale. These can include both Factor-based and Statistical Arbitrage/Trading Strategies.
Knights of Columbus U.S. All Cap Index – benchmark for U.S. All Cap Index Fund
Knights of Columbus U.S. All Cap Index Adheres to the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops’ Socially Responsible Investment Guidelines. Consists of all common stocks and real estate investment trusts in the Solactive US Broad Market Index excluding companies that are determined by Institutional Shareholder.
Bloomberg®, Bloomberg 1-3 Year U.S. Government/Credit Index and Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the index (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by Knights of Columbus Asset Advisors. Bloomberg is not affiliated with Knights of Columbus Asset Advisors, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend any Knights of Columbus Funds. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to Knights of Columbus Funds.
Indices are unmanaged and do not reflect the effect of fees. One cannot invest directly in an index.
Lipper Peer Group Definitions
Lipper Short Investment Grade Debt Classification – peer group for Limited Duration Fund
Funds that invest primarily in investment-grade debt issues (rated in the top four grades) with dollar-weighted average maturities of less than three years. The Limited Duration Bond fund ranked 218 out of 375 funds measured for the one-year ranking period and ranked 163 out of 305 funds measured for the five-year ranking period as of April 30, 2023.
Lipper Core Bond Classification – peer group for Core Bond Fund
Funds that invest at least 85% in domestic investment-grade debt issues (rated in the top four grades) with any remaining investment in non-benchmark sectors such as high-yield, global and emerging market debt. These funds maintain dollar-weighted average maturities of five to ten years. The Core Bond fund ranked 409 out of 517 funds measured for the one-year ranking period and ranked 265 out of 458 funds measured for the five-year ranking period as of April 30, 2023.
Lipper Multi-Cap Growth Classification – peer group for Large Cap Growth Fund
Funds that, by portfolio practice, invest in a variety of market capitalization ranges without concentrating 75% of their equity assets in any one market capitalization range over an extended period of time. Multi-cap growth funds typically have above-average characteristics compared to the S&P SuperComposite 1500 Index. The Large Cap Growth fund ranked 366 out of 642 funds measured for the one-year ranking period ranked and 487 out of 574 funds measured for the five-year ranking period as of April 30, 2023.
Lipper Multi-Cap Value Classification – peer group for Large Cap Value Fund
Funds that, by portfolio practice, invest in a variety of market capitalization ranges without concentrating 75% of their equity assets in any one market capitalization range over an extended period of time. Multi-cap value funds typically have below-average characteristics compared to the S&P SuperComposite 1500 Index. The Large Cap Value fund ranked 250 out of 661 funds measured for the one-year ranking period and ranked 287 out of 580 funds measured for the five-year ranking period as of April 30, 2023.
Lipper Small-Cap Core Classification – peer group for Small Cap Fund
Funds that, by portfolio practice, invest at least 75% of their equity assets in companies with market capitalizations (on a three-year weighted basis) below Lipper’s USDE small-cap ceiling. Small cap core funds have more latitude in the companies in which they invest. These funds typically have average characteristics compared to the S&P SmallCap 600 Index. The Small Cap Equity fund ranked 434 out of 705 funds measured for the one-year ranking period and ranked 530 out of 624 funds measured for the five-year ranking period as of April 30, 2023.
Lipper International Multi-Cap Core Classification – peer group for International Equity Fund
Funds that, by portfolio practice, invest in a variety of market capitalization ranges without concentrating 75% of their equity assets in any one market capitalization range over an extended period of time. International multi-cap funds typically have characteristics compared to the MSCI EAFE Index. The International Equity fund ranked 325 out of 334 funds measured for the one-year ranking period and ranked 195 out of 267 funds measured for the five-year ranking period as of April 30, 2023.
Lipper Real Estate Classification – peer group for Real Estate Fund
Funds invest primarily in equity securities of domestic and foreign companies engaged in the real estate industry. The Real Estate fund ranked 56 out of 250 funds measured for the one-year ranking and ranked 31 out of 232 funds measured for the three-year ranking period as of April 30, 2023.
Lipper Alternative Long/Short Equity Classification – peer group for Long/Short Equity Fund
Funds that employ portfolio strategies combining long holdings of equities with short sales of equities, equity options or equity index options. The funds may be either net long or net short, depending on the portfolio manager’s view of the market. The Long/Short fund ranked 124 out of 223 funds measured for the one-year ranking and ranked 122 out of 197 funds measured for the three-year ranking period as of April 30, 2023.
Lipper Multi-Cap Core Classification – peer group for U.S. All Cap Index Fund
Funds that, by portfolio practice, invest in a variety of market capitalization ranges without concentrating 75% of their equity assets in any one market-capitalization range over an extended period of time. The U.S. All Cap Index fund ranked 301 out of 666 funds measured for the one-year ranking period and ranked 139 out of 592 funds measured for the three-year ranking as of April 30, 2023.